The original version of the home page contained a rather abstract account of Estimation and Decision Making. As explained on the new version, the website exists because of a need to explain something which is important for various applications.

This account of Decision Estimation is for realworld applications such as a Justice System. As explained on the website for that specific application, the biggest problem with decision making and estimation is error covariance. Another important application of the material presented below is in bipartite matching. In this case the problem is to estimate the weights applied to each possible connection, so the the resulting solution will be optimal. When is this important? A very specific application is in finding matching pairs of people, to form good interpersonal relationships.

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Network of Websites

My strategy is to have a large network of websites, instead of hiding my pages within a few of them, or posting them on a blog.

If you do not see much content on any one website, it is because material intended for that site is on another one.  See if any of the ones below look interesting.

All of these sites are related to the main Social Technology site and have been added to the network at various times over the years. As well adding new material, existing content is being slowly redistributed or copied. That will take a while. For more information see my personal home page and then the Social Technology History page.

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Error Covariance vs. Good Decision Making and Estimation

It is vital to consider the question of error covariance, which can be described as the tendency to make similar mistakes.  Please see the error covariance website for more information.

This website was intended for problems in Social Technology which involve people making decisions and estimating values.

An interesting approach to dealing with this problem is to match people with others who have demonstrably low error covariance.  If you had ten people to work on estimation problems, matching them into five teams of two in such a way as to minimize the overall error covariance.  This can be done with weighted bipartite matching, where the weight of a potential link was greater if the error covariance was lower.

A possible application of this is in the justice system, in which carefully matching judges could reduce the total number of wrong decisions in the whole system.  This would have an even greater effect if used in jury selection.  In this case it would be an attempted solution to a large combinatorial problem by converting it to a binary tree.

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Welcome to the new Decision Estimation site.

This site is new, created September 21, 2016.  It has little content as yet other than the About page, but please check back soon.

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